The vote is geographic before it is anything else.
The Ballon d'Or is decided by a panel of journalists, one per country, drawn from a list maintained by France Football. The list is not random. It is curated. The countries on the list reflect a particular geography of football media that prioritises European and South American journalism.
The result is a vote that systematically favours players who play in leagues those journalists watch. The Premier League. La Liga. Serie A. Ligue 1. Bundesliga. With occasional bonus weight for World Cup performances.
A player who has a brilliant season at Al-Hilal will struggle to win this trophy, not because the voters dislike him, but because the structure of the vote does not reward Saudi performances the way it rewards Manchester ones.
This was not a problem when the world's best players were all in Europe. It is starting to be a problem now. The Ballon d'Or risks becoming a European award that pretends to be global, and the pretence is becoming harder to sustain.
The 2024 vote will not address this. The 2025 vote probably will not either. But within a decade, the geography of the panel will need to change, or the trophy itself will lose authority.
The voters know this. The trophy administrators know this. The change will be slow, because the current system serves the current incumbents, and nobody surrenders authority voluntarily.