Posted 19:15 CET, 14 November 2025. Kickoff 20:45.
Spain 2, France 1.
France has not solved the problem from the Euro semi-final. The midfield is still uncertain. Camavinga is back but not yet at full sharpness. Tchouaméni is being asked to do two jobs. The forward line has Mbappé and not much else with consistent club rhythm right now.
Spain has the opposite problem, which is not really a problem. Yamal is now eighteen and visibly more decisive than he was last year. Pedri is healthy. Rodri controls the midfield in ways no other European team has an answer for. Nico Williams is the wide threat France will struggle to contain.
Deschamps will set up as he always does. A compact midfield. Trust in transitions. Hope that Mbappé wins a moment. The plan has worked enough times that he keeps using it. It will not work tonight.
The deciding factor is the second ball after Spain's pressing turnovers. Spain regains possession in dangerous areas more efficiently than any team in Europe. France will give the ball away in those areas. One of those turnovers will become a goal.
Final prediction: Spain 2, France 1. France gets one back late, as they did at the Euro. Spain through, but the qualifying group stays open.