Posted 20:00 CET, 9 April 2024. Kickoff 21:00. First leg.

Real Madrid 2, Manchester City 2.

This will be the match of the tournament. Both teams know it. The two best squads in Europe, drawn together in the quarter-final, with neither side at full strength but both at full intent.

City will dominate possession. They always do. Madrid will be comfortable letting them have it, up to a point. The point at which Madrid stops being comfortable is the point at which Vinícius and Rodrygo decide the transition has opened. That moment will arrive sometime around minute 30.

The key question is Bellingham. He has been the best midfielder in Europe this season. He runs from deep with timing nobody else has. If he times two of those runs into the box, Madrid scores twice. If City's midfield manages to track him, City controls the match.

Rodri is the most important player on the pitch. He has been since the season started. If he plays a normal Rodri game, City wins narrowly. If he is slightly off, Madrid scores three.

The match will end 2-2. The second leg in Manchester will be decided on a moment in extra time that the cameras will replay for years.

Final prediction: 2-2 first leg, draw aggregate, Madrid through on penalties in the return.