Posted 18:00 CET, 18 January 2026. Kickoff 20:00. Prince Moulay Abdellah Stadium, Rabat.
Morocco 2, Senegal 1.
I am going to be wrong about this. I know I am going to be wrong about this. I am still going to write the prediction I actually believe.
Morocco at home. Morocco with Brahim Díaz at the height of his form. Morocco with Hakimi reborn at right back. Morocco with the entire weight of a country and a half-million people in the stadium and on the streets around it. The home advantage is enormous. The press has been understating it.
Senegal is better resourced. Their squad is more decorated. They beat the Ivory Coast in the quarter-final and the Egypt of Salah in the semi-final. Mendy is in form. Sadio Mané has talked about this being his last AFCON. The motivation is there.
But Morocco at home, in a final, with Brahim Díaz in this form, with Regragui having spent six months specifically preparing for this moment, is the most prepared team in the tournament for exactly this fixture. They will press in waves. They will compress Senegal into the central channels. They will deny the wide overloads that Senegal needs to operate.
The match will be tight. Morocco will score first. Senegal will equalize from a moment. Morocco will win it late, probably from a set piece, probably from Aguerd or Saiss, probably to a noise level that has not been heard in Rabat since they hosted the 1988 final.
This will probably age badly. That is fine. I will be back to write about it whatever happens.