The 2026 World Cup is four weeks away. The pre-tournament narrative is settling. I want to write the three stories I expect the press to get wrong before the tournament begins, so that I have it on record.
First. Morocco at the World Cup will be framed as a sequel to 2022. It is not a sequel. It is a different squad, a different coach, a different political moment, a different relationship with the host country. The 2022 framing of Morocco as a fairy tale was wrong then. The 2026 framing of Morocco as defending semi-finalists will be wrong for opposite reasons. They are going to the United States as the second-best team in Africa, possibly the third, depending on what you make of the AFCON situation. They are no longer the underdog. They are not the favourite either. The press has no framework for this position, so they will reach for one of the two extremes and get it wrong.
Second. The Senegal-Morocco AFCON dispute will be carried into the World Cup by the press, even though neither team is in the same group, neither plays the other in the group stage, and neither federation wants the controversy to dominate the build-up. The press will not be able to help itself. Every Morocco match will be framed against the missing trophy. Every Senegal match will be framed against the appeal. The football itself will struggle to break through.
Third. The Saudi national team's first World Cup appearance under the new project will be framed as a test of whether the SPL has produced anything. It has not been long enough for the league to have produced anything at the national team level. The investment is at the club level. The Saudi national team will have several players from the Saudi league but also from the Spanish, Italian, and German leagues. They will perform at the level you would expect of a competitive but not elite Asian side. The press will frame whatever they do as a verdict on the entire Saudi project, which is a category error.
I want these three pieces on record before the tournament. I will be back to write whatever actually happens. The point of the prediction is to be specific and to be wrong in specific ways, which is more useful than being right in general.