Posted 19:30 CET, 8 May 2024. Kickoff 21:00. Semi-Final second leg, 2-2 from first leg.
Real Madrid through. Final score 2-1.
Here is the structural read.
Bayern needs to score early. Tuchel knows this. His team will press from the first whistle, high and aggressive, trying to force errors in the Madrid build-up before the away side settles. The first fifteen minutes will be the most chaotic of the match.
Madrid has lived in chaos all season. They have one of the worst expected goals differentials of any Madrid team in recent memory. They have also won every important match they needed to win. That is not luck. That is something else, something the analytics community keeps failing to capture.
The midfield battle is Kroos versus Goretzka. Kroos wins this. He has been winning these matches for ten years.
Vinícius will be quiet for sixty minutes. Then he will not be quiet. Bayern's full-backs will eventually tire of the doubling-up strategy and one of them will get caught.
The match will turn on a moment, probably between minute 70 and minute 80. It usually does in this fixture.
Bellingham scores at some point. He has scored in every match that mattered this season. Final score 2-1 Madrid, aggregate 4-3, Madrid to the final.